Analiza ranog upozorenja - osnovne značajke i primjena

undergraduate thesis

• Title (english): Early Warning Analysis - Basic Features and Applications
• Author: Andreja Tomašević
• Mentor: Danijela Lucić (mentor)
• Mentor: Davor Kiseljak (komentor)
• Committee member: Lidija Kos-Stanišić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Danijela Lucić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Davor Kiseljak (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; (Croatian Defence Academy "Dr. Franjo Tuđman"); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2022-06-29, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Security and Defense Science

Abstract

Prioritetni cilj obavještajne zajednice je pravovoremeno informirati i upozoriti. Proteklo
desetljeće na Balkanu, popraćeno nestabilnostima i sukobima, daje nam jasnu pouku- Rano
upozorenje o nadolazećim krizama je od vitalnog značaja za ispravno postupanje prema
nadolazećim krizama. Ipak, znati kako i kada je najbolje uključiti se u novonastalu krizu,
kompleksno je i iziskuje stvaranje situacijske svjesnosti te brzo predviđanje budućih ishoda. Na
temelju neuspjelih i zakašnjelih reakcija, mnoga tijela kao što su; međunarodne organiazcije,
Ujedinjeni Narodi, Europska komisija shvatili su važnost ulaganja u sustave ranog upozorenja.
Ova inicijativa posebice se ističe u NATO Savezu koji je razvitkom Indications and Warning/
Indikatori i upozorba na ugrozu (I&W) metodologije stvorio i utemeljio prvu barijeru protiv
strateškog iznenađenja. Metodom je osigurano dovoljno vremena za pripremu, analizu i
planiranje odgovora na krize. Današnja kompleknost sigurnosnog okružja ukazuje na nužnost
daljnje adaptacije indikatora ugroza, jednako kao i kreiranje novih reformi unutar analize ranog
upozorenja.

Abstract (english)

The priority goal of the intelligence community is to inform and warn in a timely manner. The
past decade in the Balkans, accompanied by instabilities and conflicts, has given us a clear
lesson- Early warning of impending crises is vital to dealing with impending crises. However,
knowing how and when it is best to get involved in a new crisis is complex and requires creating
situational awareness and quickly predicting future outcomes. Based on failed and delayed
reactions, many bodies such as; international organizations, the United Nations, the European
Commission have realized the importance of investing in early warning systems. This initiative
stands out in particular in NATO, which has created and established the first barrier against
strategic surprise by developing Indications and Warning (I&W) methodology. The method
provides enough time to prepare, analyze and plan crisis responses. Today's complexity of the
security environment indicates the need to further adapt the threat indicators, as well as to create
new reforms within the early warning analysis.

• Keywords: I&W- Indications and Warning; strateško iznenađenje; rano upozorenje
• Keywords (english): Indications and Warning (I&W) methodology; crises response; early warning
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:249:301585
• Study programme: Title: Military Leadership and Management; Study programme type: university; Study level: undergraduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) vojnog vođenja i upravljanja (sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) vojnog vođenja i upravljanja)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2023-02-02 13:47:34