Obrambeno planiranje - Je li planiranje temeljeno na sposobnostima samo mit?

master's thesis

• Title (english): Defence planning - Is Capability-Based Planning Just a Myth?
• Author: Luka Vučić
• Mentor: Stjepan Domjančić (mentor)
• Committee member: Robert Mikac (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Stjepan Domjančić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Mladen Trnski (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; (Croatian Defence Academy "Dr. Franjo Tuđman"); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020-07-13, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Security and Defense Science

Abstract

U svim državama članicama Sjevernoatlantskog saveza i Europske unije planiranje temeljeno na
sposobnostima deklarirano je kao temelj dugoročnog obrambenog planiranja. Ulaskom u novo
tisućljeće ratni sukobi i krize obilježeni su neodređenošću i nepredvidljivošću sigurnosnog
okruženja što značajno otežava obrambeno planiranje. Stoga, ovaj rad će opisati proces dugoročnog
obrambenog planiranja, svrhu i pristupe koji se koriste. Također, ovaj rad daje osvrt na izazove i
prijetnje suvremenog doba. Trend s fokusiranja na „male ratove“ prebacio se na sposobnosti
vođenja konvencionalnih sukoba s ravnopravnim protivnikom, baš kao i u doba Hladnog rata. Osim
spomenutih izazova tu su i mnoge prijetnje koje nisu isključivo u vojnoj domeni poput klimatskih
promjena, ilegalnih migracija i globalnih pandemija. Sve navedeno uzrokuje pritisak na obrambene
proračune u vrijeme kada političke elite i zapadna društva ne gledaju blagonaklono na vojne
izdatke. U radu se obrađuju pristupi država u provedbi obrambenog planiranja i upravljanja vojnim
proračunima. Uspoređivani su udjeli proračuna u različitim segmentima unutar jedne države.
Obrambeno planiranje u Republici Hrvatskoj suočava se s mnogim izazovima te postoji veliki
prostor za daljnji napredak u tom području. Kao zaključak ovog rada nameće se odgovor na pitanje
je li obrambeno planiranje temeljeno na sposobnostima samo mit.

Abstract (english)

In all member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the European Union, capabilitybased planning has been declared to be the basis for long-term defense planning. With the
beginning of the new millennium, war conflicts and crises have been marked with uncertainty and
unpredictability of environment security, which significantly complicates defense planning.
Therefore, this paper will elaborate the long-term defense planning process, the purpose and the
approaches that are being used. Also, this paper provides an overview of the challenges and threats
of the modern age. The trend of focusing on “small wars” has shifted to the ability of waging
conventional conflicts with an equal adversary, just as it did during the Cold War. In addition to the
challenges mentioned, there are many threats that are not exclusively in the military domain such as
climate change, illegal migrations, and global pandemics. All the above is putting pressure on
defense budgets at a time when political elites and Western societies are not in favor of military
spending. The paper covers approaches and implementation in defense planning. Also, the shares of
budgets in different segments within one state were compared. Defense planning in the Republic of
Croatia faces many challenges and there is much room for further progress in this area. As a
conclusion of this paper, the answer to the question of whether capability-based defense planning is
just a myth is being imposed.

• Keywords: dugoročno obrambeno planiranje; sposobnosti; nesigurnost; prijetnje; obrambeno planiranje u Republici Hrvatskoj
• Keywords (english): long-term defense planning; capability-based planning; uncertainty and unpredictability; threats; Defense planning in Republic of Croatia
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:249:561037
• Study programme: Title: Military Engineering; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: MAGISTAR/MAGISTRA INŽENJER/INŽENJERKA VOJNOG INŽENJERSTVA (MAGISTAR/MAGISTRA INŽENJER/INŽENJERKA VOJNOG INŽENJERSTVA)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2021-02-01 14:14:19